Look, this season is pretty far from being over, but it’s definitely worth noting that Jeff Lebby and the Mississippi State Bulldogs are doing a pretty good job so far. I mean, we’re talking about a team that has already surpassed the win total from the first season of the Lebby era in Starkville.
We’re three weeks in!
Depending on how you want to look at that, things are going great! Or they’re terrible. You get to pick.
Last season, MSU fans had a horrific time. This season, the Bulldogs have already beaten the 12th-ranked team in the country (shoutout to the Arizona State Sun Devils for losing in Starkville in Week 2).
Mississippi State, at 3-0, is halfway to bowl eligibility. That’s good. Really good news. Especially for a program that needs something good to happen after a few rough seasons following Mike Leach’s death (and also all of the turmoil the program has experienced since Dan Mullen left Starkville).
Three more wins and the Bulldogs guarantee a spot in a bowl somewhere.
The only problem is, the schedule is pretty difficult. One of the toughest in the country. That said, I don’t think many people really expected State to come out on top of the Sun Devils in that Week 2 matchup. So, it won’t be impossible given that Mississippi State is better than expected.
And ESPN’s Football Power Index backs that up.
ESPN’s FPI gives Mississippi State a decent shot at making a bowl game this season
I know a lot of Mississippi State fans are going to get flustered about us talking about Mississippi State just making it to a bowl game. Especially in light of that upset win over Arizona State that we’ve talked about a few times.
However.
Entering the year, MSU fans would have been over the moon about the prospect of simply having an appearance at *gestures wildly* literally anywhere in the postseason.
So, let’s take what we can get, shall we?
And right now, that includes ESPN’s Football Power Index giving the Mississippi State Bulldogs a 54.1 percent chance of getting to a bowl game. Which, you know, feels like a win. It’s close to not being a win! But I’ll count it. We’ll take it.
Right now, MSU is expected to get to 4-0 with a win over Northern Illinois this weekend. I’m not going to take that as a given given how last season went, but that’s one the Bulldogs should win.
ESPN’s FPI agrees.
Right now, ahead of this game in Week 4, the Bulldogs have an 87.9 percent chance of coming out on top of NIU this weekend in Starkville.
And while the Bulldogs have that aforementioned decent chance of getting to a bowl game, finding two more wins on the schedule does get a little tricky and it’s not totally clear where those wins will come from.
Getting to six wins is theoretically doable, but it’ll be tough for Mississippi State
Right now, here’s what the win probabilities, per the ESPN Analytics Matchup Predictor, look like for the remainder of the season.
| Date | Opponent | Location | Result | Score | W-L (Conf) | ESPN Win Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30 | Southern Miss | Home | W | 34-17 | 1-0 (0-0) | – |
| Sep 6 | #12 Arizona State | Home | W | 24-20 | 2-0 (0-0) | – |
| Sep 13 | Alcorn State | Home | W | 63-0 | 3-0 (0-0) | – |
| Sep 20 | Northern Illinois | Home | – | – | – | 87.90% |
| Sep 27 | #15 Tennessee | Home | – | – | – | 23.20% |
| Oct 4 | #10 Texas A&M | Away | – | – | – | 19.50% |
| Oct 18 | Florida | Away | – | – | – | 36.20% |
| Oct 25 | #8 Texas | Home | – | – | – | 21.20% |
| Nov 1 | Arkansas | Away | – | – | – | 25.90% |
| Nov 8 | #5 Georgia | Home | – | – | – | 17.30% |
| Nov 15 | #23 Missouri | Away | – | – | – | 18.50% |
| Nov 28 | #13 Ole Miss | Home | – | – | – | 22.10% |
I mean, it’s doable, but it’s going to be tough. Those teams highlighted in blue are all ranked. And there are SIX ranked teams left on Mississippi State’s schedule right now. Unfortunately, that’s a lot of ranked opponents!
Now, that said, it’s not like all of the remaining teams on MSU’s schedule have looked all that impressive.
Florida definitely looks flawed (but that defense might be legit). Arkansas is theoretically beatable. Texas sure hasn’t looked like a top 10 team for much of this season (but that’s another defense that really might be terrifying). Maybe MSU can get into a shootout with Tennessee, Missouri, and Ole Miss?
I don’t know.
I’m not counting any of those games as wins. So much of this schedule looks tricky.
However.
Entering this season, most folks didn’t have the Bulldogs at 3-0 right now. Mississippi State wasn’t expected to beat Arizona State. IF (and that’s a big if, hence the all caps for those two letters there) the Sun Devils are actually legit like folks thought in the preseason AND IF (another big if) Mississippi State is actually improved, then it seems plausible that another few wins could certainly happen.
But those are some big ifs. And we’ll see what happens. As for right now, regardless of how the rest of the season plays out, it’s refreshing to see Mississippi State in this sort of position. I’ll take what I can get.
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